Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Accuracy and Precision

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics." 
Mark Twain


I so often use statistics in my work that I forget that other do not. Not only is unfamiliarity a problem, but so often statistics are manipulated by those that use them to support one argument or another. When in doubt, ask for the raw data and do it yourself. One of the things that my father always reminded me when I was young was to look at my source. That is a very valuable thing in the day of the internet where anything and everything is out there.

To aid in some understanding I thought I would describe certain statistical terms that arise in journal articles in my field.

Accuracy: Accuracy is how close a measurement is to the "true" value. In a laboratory setting this is often how far a measured value is from a standard with a known value that was measured by different technology or on a different instrument.

Precision: Precision is how close repeated measurements are to each other. Precision has no bearing on a target value, it is simply how close multiple measurements are together. Reproducibility is key to scientific research and precision is important in this aspect.

Now obviously the goal is to have a measurement that is both accurate and precise, but being one doesn't mean that the other is as well. For example, if we had a bow and arrow and target, accurate shots would be ones in which hit the bulls eye. If we landed a shot in the bulls eye and others around the target we would be accurate, but not precise. If all of our shots landed close together, but not near the target than we would be precise but not accurate. To be accurate and precise we would need our shots to be together and in the bullseye.
The images above are a good reason to look further than just an average. If the average is based on a wide range of values than that average may indeed be meaningless. For example, if I have the values of 1 and 100, the average is 50.5. I could have that same average of 50.5 if my two values were 50 and 51. Both pairs of numbers result in the same average, but in the first example, the average is meaningless because the two numbers are so far apart.

This is where standard deviation comes in.

Standard Deviation: Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion of numbers around a population average. So if you envision a bell curve of data, the standard deviation would be how far apart the numbers are from the average. Our first example above would have a very large standard deviation where as our second one would be small.Depending on how many standard deviations are used will tell you how many of the values are covered. One standard deviation will include 68% of all values whereas three standard deviations will include 99% of all values.



It's always important to look at how the data is being represented and to keep those three aspects in mind. If you are looking at a set of numbers or a conclusion drawn from repeated testing you want to be aware of the terms I mentioned above to know how much credibility to give the data.


Friday, February 4, 2011

Marijuana Soda

Now that Four Loko is being banned so frequently it was only a matter of time before another controversial drink would hit the news. This time it's not alcohol we're talking about, but marijuana.

In California, where the sale of medical marijuana is already legal, cannabis containing drinks are already sold in dispensaries. What makes this item newsworthy is more to do with it's packaging and marketing. Sold in fruity flavors and carbonated like soda these drinks from Canna Catering are marketed for their enjoyment factor and not for their medicinal purpose. Indeed for half the price of the medical beverages already sold it only contains a third of the marijuana as the medical beverages, so who really is this drink being made for?

Although Proposition 19 failed in November of this past year, which would have made personal recreational use of marijuana legal for those over 21 years, marijuana has been decriminalized so that possession of less than an ounce is only subjected to a $100 fine.

Is Canna Catering gambling that it's only a matter of time before it's legal? A company in Colorado, Dixie Elixers, is marketing their own line of drinks much like the soda from Canna Catering. It certainly seems like these companies are getting into line to be first in supermarkets should it become legal.